The Sky is Falling!

It’s kind of surreal watching the market plummet again today.  Nine days ago my net worth was at an all time high.  That was two hundred thirty-three thousand dollars ago.  That means I’ve lost $26,000 a day for nine straight days.  That seems like a lot to me due to my personal history.  I had one of the highest job offers in my engineering class when I graduated, a long time ago, and it was for $18,000 a year!  So in the last nine days I’ve lost thirteen years worth of my starting income.  In nine days!  And that’s with a very diverse portfolio that is less than half invested in stocks and index funds.  Those numbers are kind of staggering to me from the math side of things.  And it is only noon, the market will probably fall another percent or two by the end of the day. 

So what to do?  Panic, sell, make a run on Walmart for Kraft Mac an Cheese?  Or we could cancel our upcoming hiking trip to Switzerland in a few months, the most expensive vacation we’ve ever planned. It is also costing significantly more than a year of my income back in the day for just nine days of travel and hiking.  Seems to be some symmetry around nine days for me.  I remember 2000, and 2008 when losing a few hundred thousand was pretty huge because I did not have as large a portfolio of investments as I do now.  I was also 100% invested in the stock market, no bonds or money markets.  But I was also saving aggressively, living on less than I made and never, ever pulling anything out of savings.  So, while it hurt to see my paper net worth drop like a hot rock I knew that the math was OK. 

It feels a little different this time because I’m no longer earning a large income.  My hobby jobs pay the bills but they just barely pay them and do not make extra to save and invest.  I guess technically I’m still investing because I do not spend the dividends and interest my index and bond funds generate, I just let them reinvest.  But the fact that I’m kind of living paycheck to paycheck now makes seeing my net worth go down feel less theoretical than when I could simply out earn any bad market performance that happened.  So what to do now?  I’d say doing absolutely nothing sounds like the best plan.  Just do nothing different.

 I might shift some cash into the market, circumstances have left me cash heavy and I’ve been needing to do that anyway, and this dip makes this a better than average time to handle that bit of housekeeping.  But I’ll mostly just stay diversely and conservatively invested.  I do not need to make a high rate of return and do not need to take a lot of risk because, once you’ve won the game you really can stop playing.  And you probably should if losing would impact your lifestyle because making more money isn’t going to accomplish anything useful once you’ve got enough.   

That’s an easy perspective for a boomer who made the right choices over the last thirty years.  But what about you?  You are more likely closer to where I was in 2000 or 2008. 

What are you planning to do in response to this falling market?

Have you ever reacted to a falling market in a way you later regretted?

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In Defense of Stuff

It is very popular to promote experiences over buying tangible possessions right now.  It seems universal to find bloggers recommending a more minimal lifestyle.  The world almost seems to be divided into two groups.  The smart group is focused on experiences, they are the Marie Kondo, zen minimalists who have one spork per person and wash their only set of clothes nightly.  The materialistic group, on the other hand, comes back from daily shopping trips with their SUV’s piled full of new shoes, clothes, electronics and lawn gnomes.  And it is a given that the smart people are on the minimalist side of the playing field while the other team is hopelessly in debt and unhappy, despite their many under used toys.  

I don’t accept that at all.  That’s just an exercise in seeing who can build the flimsiest straw-man for the opposing view point. Before I jump into what seems wrong with the classic minimalist argument let me put myself in context.  I’m financially independent and I retired early, at least slightly early, four years ago.  My wife was a stay at home mom and our three millennial kids are grown and gone now.  We have no debt, a paid for house and three cars between my wife and myself.  But I also have a Polaris RZR off road vehicle, a bass fishing boat, a country club membership, cable TV and pretty much every streaming service available.  We have nice computers, four iPads and I’ve got a $1,399 smartphone with an unlimited plan.  My wife and I have maybe ten tennis racquets between us, probably 15 fishing rods and reels and a bunch of pickle ball equipment.  We have top of the line hiking equipment and outdoor wear suitable from -20 to 104 deg F.  We have great running shoes, trail running shoes,  tennis shoes and hiking shoes along with all our other day to day shoes.  We have a shop with all kinds of power, garden and hand tools and a $5,000 lawnmower    And we are putting the final details together on an overseas ten day vacation this year that will cost the two of us $20,000.  By my estimation we have a lot of stuff and are also spending a lot of time and money on experiences. 

So what about the arguments for extreme minimalism? The concept that removing clutter simplifies your life is one of the main ones.  Yet with all our things, everything is in its place in our home.  There is zero clutter.  We are both very neat, we do not lay things around.  When we gather up our stuff to go play tennis or go fishing it is all in one place and not in the way.  After all we have fifteen rooms for two people, there is lots of room to put things so they are not in the way. When we get home we put it right back where we got it.

Why so many tennis racquets? I think I said we had ten.  That sounds excessive, right?  Its not.  Like most activities there is more to tennis than you would guess if you aren’t a player or if you only play at a light recreational level.  My wife and I are good players who compete annually in leagues that can lead all the way up to national championships, though we haven’t gotten that far yet.   Maintaining proficiency at that level requires changing your equipment as new technology comes around and as you grow older. You simply have to adjust your game play and equipment to match your changing physical condition.  At any one time I need three or four racquets that are identical because my topspin breaks the strings after a few sets and so I can keep a dry handle on the racquet in the summer.  Generally we are also trying out something newer to offset tennis elbow and other ailments. You could go all Kondo for tennis and play with just one racquet but you’d be sitting at home most of the time waiting for it to be restrung, and you’d pretty much lose most of your matches.  So you tell me, are all those tennis racquets possessions, or just the price of admission to be able to generate all the experiences of winning and losing tournaments and fellowship time with our tennis buddies?  Are they things or experiences? It isn’t clear to me.

And that points out the central flaw in the experience vs things debate.   There is no bright line between experiences and things.  Let me use another example, say you want to have what is arguably a very elite experience.  Climbing Mount Everest would be a great experience for some people.  It is risky, it is rewarding and it puts you in a very small group of people.  It must be a pretty good experience to attract as many as it does, especially considering a fairly high percentage of them die from the attempt.   And it will cost you four months and at least $40,000.  Very few people would throw that in the frugal or minimalist corner.  But it is clearly an experience and not a material thing.  You could rent everything you need for that experience so that there wasn’t a single possession involved.  But did you buy an experience or was it really a “thing” to climb that mountain? 

Maybe you want to start running.   The very first thing you need to do is to buy a pair of running shoes.  Those range from around $50 to $175 in most cases.  You have to get lucky and find last year’s discontinued models to get decent shoes for $50, but it is possible.  Lets just say you find a comfortable pair for $65.  Well, what is that expense categorized as?  Shoes are possessions, but running is an experience.  And a dirt cheap one at that.  Same kind of problem, no clear line of demarcation. 

But to be fair let me serve up what sounds like the ultimate softball pitch.  How about buying a Rolex wristwatch?  That’s a thing right?  A time keeping device that is less accurate than a thirty dollar Timex but that can easily cost $20,000.  Is that a thing or an experience?  It is a thing if you could care less about fancy watches but what if living that Rolex lifestyle was your lifetime dream, as it is for some?  Then aren’t they really just buying a lifestyle, or trying to?  And a lifestyle is experience.  

I suppose the only person who matters in deciding what something is,  a piece of stuff, or a tool to build an experience, is you.  What does that thing mean to you?  Why is it important?  I think we are all pretty judgy when it comes to what others decide to spend money on.  I have wealthy friends with houses at the lake or at resort locations.  Since I could care less about having a second house to take care of I tend to judge that as wasteful.  But they have large extended families with lots of kids and grandkids and those attractive locations draw those people together and give them, guess what?  Great experiences together.  Why should I judge that as wasteful?  

I could go through the same exercise with our off road vehicle, our fishing equipment and our electronics but it would turn out the same. There are experiential reasons for having those things.  In fact the only reason we have any of those possessions is to leverage them to have great experiences together. But a $1,399 smartphone, what about that? Well that’s for my profitable side gigs, not to show off. It is my internet hot spot when I travel and my electronic note taking device.  Having paid side gigs is an experience that adds to my life in retirement a great deal and one that adds to our retirement income.

As for me, this thought exercise has made me feel a little bit guilty about judging others for spending on things that look like they are just wasteful or are excessive possessions.  Perhaps they make possible life changing experiences for that person, something I do not understand from the outside looking in.  But something that is very real to them.  I’m going to try not to do that going forward.  

How about you, do you think possessions and experiences are totally separate and easy to define?  

Or do you think what looks like a material thing to you might represent a treasured experience for someone else?  

If you aren’t cluttered should you still declutter?  

Are hobbies that don’t require a lot of equipment, like yoga, better than hobbies that do, like skiing? 

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